2006 Top 10 Strategic Technologies(1)

The ways of technology are notoriously hard to predict and few have a vision of the future. Gartner Inc.’s picks up 10 top strategic technologies for 2006 as following.

1. microcommerce

Microcommerce is an online selling/purchasing model that involves the exchange of very small sums of money, sometimes known as micropayments. Gartner forecast that online purchases of products and services priced at less than $5.00 would generate $30 billion per year by 2010. Examples of microcommerce include single song purchases, pay-per-click advertising, and per-article charges for access to online content.

2. desktop search

Desktop search (sometimes called integrated search) is the ability to simultaneously search multiple data sources ——typically including the Internet and corporate intranets and databases as well as hard drives and removable storage on the user’s computer——from a search term entered into a text box on the desktop. Desktop search programs create an index of files stored on the computer, which enables fast and fairly comprehensive searches. The user can search local hard drives, Web sites, e-mail, and other sources without having to minimize the current document or open a browser, e-mail client, or other application. HotBot offers basic desktop search tools; Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google are among the major vendors offering or developing their own versions. Eventually, desktop search could make it possible to find information stored anywhere in the world that was connected, even indirectly, to the Internet.

3. OLED

OLED (organic light-emitting diodes) is a display technology, pioneered and patented by Kodak, based on the use of organic polymer material as the semiconductor material in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). A polymer can be a natural or synthetic substance and macro or micro in size. Examples of organic polymers include proteins and DNA. OLED displays are used in cellular phones, digital video cameras, digital versatile disc (DVD) players, personal digital assistants (PDAs), notebooks, car stereos, and televisions. OLED displays are thinner and weigh less because they do not require backlighting. OLED displays also have a wide viewing angle up to 160 degrees even in bright light, and they use only two to ten volts to operate. New technologies that build on the OLED include FOLED (flexible organic light-emitting display), which promises to make highly portable, roll-up displays possible within the next few years.

4. Linux

Linux is a Unix-like operating system that was designed to provide personal computer users a free or very low-cost operating system comparable to traditional and usually more expensive Unix systems. Linux has a reputation as a very efficient and fast-performing system. Linux is sometimes suggested as a alternative to Microsoft Windows. But it remains far behind Windows in numbers of users. However, its use in the business enterprise is growing.

5. IM

Instant messaging (sometimes called IM) is the ability to easily see whether a chosen friend or co-worker is connected to the Internet and, if they are, to exchange messages with them. Instant messaging differs from ordinary e-mail in the immediacy of the message exchange and also makes a continued exchange simpler than sending e-mail back and forth. Most exchanges are text-only. However, some services, such as AOL, allow voice messaging and file sharing.

6. SOA

A service-oriented architecture (SOA) defines how two computing entities interact in such a way as to enable one entity to perform a unit of work on behalf of another entity. The unit of work is referred to as a service, and the service interactions are defined using a description language. Each interaction is self-contained and loosely coupled, so that each interaction is independent of any other interaction.

Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP)-based Web services are becoming the most common implementation of SOA. However, there are non-Web services implementations of SOA that provide similar benefits. The protocol independence of SOA means that different consumers can use services by communicating with the service in different ways. Ideally, there should be a management layer between the providers and consumers to ensure complete flexibility regarding implementation protocols.

7. pervasive computing

Pervasive computing is the trend towards increasingly ubiquitous, connected computing devices in the environment, a trend being brought about by a convergence of advanced electronic-and particularly, wireless- technologies and the Internet. Pervasive computing devices are not personal computers as we tend to think of them, but very tiny -even invisible-devices, either mobile or embedded in almost any type of object imaginable, including cars, tools, appliances, clothing and various consumer goods-all communicating through increasingly interconnected networks. According to Dan Russell, a researcher at IBM’s Almaden Research Center, by 2010 computing will have become so naturalized within the environment that people will not even realize that they are using computers. Russell and other researchers expect that in the future smart devices all around us will maintain current information about their locations, the contexts in which they are being used, and relevant data about the users. (To be continous)

2006年的10大戰略技術(1)

技術的(發展)道路難于預測是眾所周知的，很少有人對(技術的)未來能有先見之明。Gartner公司為2006年挑選了10大戰略技術，如下所示。

1. 微觀商業

微觀商業是一個在線的買賣模型，它涉及小額金錢的交易，有時它也稱作微型支付。Gartner預測，到2010年，每年購買定價低于5美元的產品和服務，將產生300億美元的營收。微觀商業的例子有購買一首歌、按點擊支付的廣告以及支付訪問在線內容的每篇文章的費用等。

2. 桌面搜索

桌面搜索(有時也叫整合搜索)是一種同時搜索多個數據源——通常包括因特網、公司內部網和數據庫以及用戶計算機上的硬盤和可移動存儲設備——的能力，它是按輸入在桌面上的文本框內的搜索詞條進行搜索。桌面搜索程序對存儲在計算機中的文件生成索引，實現快速、合理的綜合搜索。用戶可以搜索本地磁盤、網站、電子郵件和其他的數據源，而不必縮小當前文件或打開瀏覽器、電郵客戶端或其他應用程序。HotBot提供了基本的桌面搜索工具，在大廠商中，Microsoft、Yahoo和Google已經或者正在開發自己版本的桌面搜索工具。最終，桌面搜索有可能實現找到儲存在世界任何地方、連在因特網上(甚至非直接連接的)信息。

3. 有機發光二極管

OLED(有機發光二極管)是一項由柯達公司帶頭研制并擁有專利的顯示技術，它是基于使用有機聚酯材料作為發光二極管中的半導體材料。聚酯可以是自然的、也可以是合成的，在尺寸上可以是宏觀的、也可以是微觀的。有機聚酯材料包括蛋白質和DNA。OLED顯示器用于手機、數碼相機、DVD播放器、個人數字助手(PDA)、筆記本電腦、汽車立體聲音響和電視。由于不需要背景光，所以OLED顯示器更薄、更輕。OLED還有更寬的視角，甚至在亮光下視角也高達160度，它們只用2至10伏電壓工作。FOLED(柔軟的有機發光顯示器)是制造OLED的新技術，有望在今后幾年中實現便攜、能卷起來的顯示器。

4. Linux

Linux是類似于Unix的操作系統，旨在為個人計算機用戶提供免費的或者極低成本的、與傳統且較為昂貴的Unix系統相當的操作系統。Linux以高效、高性能的著稱。有時，還建議將它作為微軟Windows的替代品。但它在用戶數量上仍遠遠落后于Wingdows。然而，它在企業中的應用在增長。

5. IM

即時通信(有時叫做IM)是一種方法，據此很容易看到朋友或同事是否聯在因特網上，如果聯網，就能與他們交換信息。即時通信在信息交換的及時性方面與普通的電子郵件有區別，它使連續交換(信息)比來回傳送電子郵件更簡單。大多數此類交換只是文本。然而，有些服務(比如AOL的)允許聲音傳信和文件共享。

6. SOA

面向服務的架構(SOA)定義兩個計算實體如何以這樣一種方式進行交互，以便讓一個實體以另一個實體的名義做一件事。而這件事是指一個服務，并用一種描述語言定義服務的交互。每個交互式是自我獨立的和松散耦合的，