管理類聯考考研英語二外刊選讀（1）

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World Ahead 2023: More hot air

題材：環境類

出處：The Economist《經濟學人》

字數：721 words

[1] What to expect from the global climate, and from climate diplomacy, in the coming year.

【在未來的一年，我們將從全球氣候和氣候外交中期待什么。】

[2] Recent months and years have been scarred by a series of extreme weather events on all continents, which have brought home the consequences of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. More such events will occur in 2023. With average global temperatures now 1.1-1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, many floods, droughts, wildfires and heat-waves will be made worse or more likely (or both) by climate change.

【最近幾個月和幾年，各大洲發生了一系列極端天氣事件，這些事件使人們認識到大氣中溫室氣體積聚的后果。2023年將發生更多此類事件。隨著目前全球平均氣溫比工業化前的水平高出1.1-1.3攝氏度，許多洪水、干旱、野火和熱浪將因氣候變化而變得更糟或更有可能(或兩者兼而有之)。】

【重點詞匯】

diplomacy /d??pl??m?si/ n. 外交

drought /dra?t/ n. 干旱

[3] But although climate change is steadily raising average temperatures, natural sources of climate variability are also superimposed on that trend. One of the most powerful is the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes the climate around the tropics to oscillate between two states, known as El Ni?o and La Ni?a. Roughly speaking, El Ni?o causes more rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific and droughts in Australasia, while La Ni?a is associated with droughts in east Africa, and more rainfall in west Africa and South Asia.

【但是，盡管氣候變化正在穩步提高平均氣溫，但氣候變化的自然來源也疊加在這一趨勢上。其中最強大的是厄爾尼諾-南方濤動(ENSO)，它導致熱帶地區的氣候在兩種狀態之間振蕩，即厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜。粗略地說，厄爾尼諾現象在中太平洋和東太平洋造成了更多的降雨，在澳大拉西亞造成了干旱，而拉尼娜現象則與東非的干旱以及西非和南亞的降雨有關。】

【重點詞匯】

variability /?ve?ri??b?l?ti/ n. 可變性;易變性

superimpose /?su?p?r?m?p??z/ v. 使疊加

oscillate /??s?le?t/ v. 擺動

[4] Unusually, the current La Ni?a, which began in September 2020, in now in its third year—the first time this century that such a “triple dip” has occurred. Seasonal forecasts show a very strong likelihood that the rains will fail in east Africa towards the end of 2022, causing the drought and food scarcity in the region to deepen in 2023.

【不同尋常的是，當前的拉尼娜現象始于2020年9月，今年已經進入第三年，這是本世紀首次出現這種“三次探底”。季節性預測顯示，2022年底東非地區很可能沒有降雨，導致2023年該地區干旱和糧食短缺加劇。】

【重點詞匯】

likelihood /?la?klih?d/ n. 可能性

[5] Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change is an area of active research, but what is clear is that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend, and that La Ni?a years tend to be slightly cooler than average. If the current cycle is succeeded in 2023 by a neutral period, global average temperatures are likely to rise slightly. If it is followed by an El Ni?o, which turns the thermostat up, then global average temperatures will be nudged closer to the totemic 1.5°C target of the UN Paris agreement. That could lead to even more devastating extreme-weather events than those seen in recent years.

【ENSO周期是否以及如何受到氣候變化的影響是一個活躍的研究領域，但很明顯的是，這些周期處于總體變暖趨勢的頂端，拉尼娜年往往比平均值略低。如果目前的周期在2023年被一個中性期取代，全球平均氣溫可能會略有上升。如果緊隨其后的是厄爾尼諾現象，這會打開恒溫器，那么全球平均氣溫將接近聯合國巴黎協定中的1.5°C目標。這可能導致比近年來更具破壞性的極端天氣事件。】

【重點詞匯】

thermostat /?θ??m?st?t/ n. 恒溫器

nudge /n?d?/ v. (用肘)輕推，輕觸;(朝某方向)輕推，漸漸推動

devastating /?dev?ste?t??/ adj. 破壞性極強的

【長難句分析】

Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change is an area of active research, but what is clear is that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend, and that La Ni?a years tend to be slightly cooler than average.

主句：Whether and how… is an area of active research, but what is clear is that…

并列連詞but連接兩個復合句，所以整個句子是并列復合句。

主語從句1：Whether and how ENSO cycles are affected by climate change

主語從句2：what is clear

表語從句1：that the cycles sit on top of the overall warming trend

表語從句2：that La Ni?a years tend to be slightly cooler than average

[6] Curbing these devastating and costly events, and stabilising the climate by reducing global emissions, are the objectives of international climate negotiations, the latest round of which were held in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh in November 2022. The COP27 meeting came at a low point for climate diplomacy, at the end of a year overshadowed by the war in Ukraine and the related energy and food crises. Climate politics, which have often been treated somewhat separately from other geopolitical issues, were suddenly no longer isolated. Prioritising short-term energy security over longer-term emissions cuts has led to greater use of coal, for example.

【遏制這些破壞性和代價高昂的事件，通過減少全球排放來穩定氣候，是國際氣候談判的目標，最近一輪談判于2022年11月在埃及度假勝地沙姆沙伊赫舉行。COP27會議正值氣候外交的低谷，正值烏克蘭戰爭以及相關能源和糧食危機籠罩的一年結束之際。氣候政治通常與其他地緣政治問題在某種程度上被分開對待的，但突然之間，它不再是孤立的。例如，將短期能源安全置于長期減排之上，導致了煤炭的更多使用。】

【重點詞匯】

curb /k??b/ v. 控制;抑制

stabilize (stablise) /?ste?b?la?z/ v. (使)穩定，穩固

overshadow /???v????d??/ v. 給……蒙上陰影;使黯然失色

geopolitical /?d?i???p??l?t?k?l/ adj. 地緣政治學的

prioritize (prioritise) /pra???r?ta?z/ v. 按重要性排列;優先處理

[7] “The war has exploded tensions that were pre-existing,” says Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation, a lobby group. She says the war has “deconstructed” previous agreements that had survived political and military spats.

【游說團體歐洲氣候基金會(European Climate Foundation)負責人勞倫斯·圖比亞納(Laurence Tubiana)表示：“這場戰爭引爆了原本就存在的緊張局勢。”她說，這場戰爭“解構”了之前在政治和軍事沖突中幸存下來的協議。】

【重點詞匯】

tension /?ten?n/ n. 緊張局勢或關系

deconstruct /?di?k?n?str?kt/ v. 解構

spat /sp?t/ n. 小爭吵;口角

[8] The next round of talks, in November 2023, will take place in the United Arab Emirates. It is a controversial setting. The UAE’s climate envoy, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, is a government minister who also heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the UAE’s state-owned oil producer. He has spoken publicly and privately about his belief that oil and gas will continue to play a role in a net-zero carbon economy, and that oil and gas companies must be “active partners” in the global energy transformation. Expect a big argument about whether he is right.

【下一輪會談將于2023年11月在阿拉伯聯合酋長國舉行。這是一個有爭議的環境。阿聯酋氣候特使蘇爾坦·本·艾哈邁德·賈貝爾(Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber)是一位政府部長，同時也是阿聯酋國有石油生產商阿布扎比國家石油公司(Abu Dhabi National Oil Company)的負責人。他曾公開和私下談論過自己的信念，即石油和天然氣將繼續在凈零碳經濟中發揮作用，石油和天然公司必須成為全球能源轉型的“積極合作伙伴”。預計會有一場關于他是否正確的大辯論。】

【重點詞匯】

controversial /?k?ntr??v???l/ adj. 引起爭論的;有爭議的

envoy /?env??/ n. (談判的)代表

transformation /?tr?nsf??me??n/ n. 改觀;改革

[9] On the one hand, it seems likely that some fossil fuels will still be burned in mid-century, even if global net-zero is reached. Electrifying cars and trains will be relatively simple; decarbonising aviation and shipping will be harder. Using some fossil fuels, and balancing the resulting emissions with carbon capture elsewhere, may be the least bad option.

【一方面，即使全球實現凈零排放，一些化石燃料似乎仍有可能在本世紀中葉被燃燒。汽車和火車的電氣化將相對簡單，而航空和航運的脫碳將更加困難。使用一些化石燃料，并在由此產生的排放與其他地方的碳捕獲之間取得平衡，可能是最不糟糕的選擇。】

【重點詞匯】

fossil /?f?sl/ n. 化石

electrify /??lektr?fa?/ v. 使電氣化

decarbonize (decarbonise) /?di??kɑ?b?na?z/ v. 脫去……的碳

[10] On the other hand, limiting warming to 1.5-2°C, as set out in the Paris agreement, will require a dramatic reduction in fossil-fuel use, so that oil and gas end up playing only a marginal role in the global energy sector. The International Energy Agency has called for no new fossil-fuel development in order to meet net-zero targets. The uae’s climate summit will prompt a vigorous debate about the role of oil companies in the energy transition, and whether they really can be part of the solution, not just part of the problem.

【另一方面，按照巴黎協定的規定，將全球變暖控制在1.5攝氏度至2攝氏度以內，將需要大幅減少化石燃料的使用，這樣石油和天然氣最終在全球能源部門中只會扮演微不足道的角色。國際能源署呼吁不再開發新的化石燃料，以實現凈零排放目標。阿聯酋氣候峰會將引發一場激烈的辯論，主題是石油公司在能源轉型中扮演的角色，以及它們是否真的能成為解決方案的一部分，而不僅僅是問題的一部分。】

【重點詞匯】

dramatic /dr??m?t?k/ adj. 巨大的;令人吃驚的

marginal /?mɑ?d??nl/ adj. 微不足道的

sector /?sekt?(r)/ n. 部門;領域

vigorous /?v?ɡ?r?s/ adj. 充滿活力的

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