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He gave no steeron future interest-rate decisions and no assessment of where he sees theeconomy going. Yet Ben Bernanke's speech at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, on November 14th may be judged as the one in which hestamped his mark on America's monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve'schief used his speech to unveil the central bank's new strategy forcommunicating with the public. In short, the Fed plans to talk more—and moreoften—about its assessment of the economic outlook. While the Fed is not aboutto join the band of central banks that are guided by an explicit goal forprices, it will borrow some of the inflation-targeters' clothes. More than oneFed-watcher dubbed the new public-relations policy “inflation targeting-lite”.Until now, the Fed has published two forecasts a year. Starting on November20th it will publish projections once a quarter. The end-point for forecastswill be pushed out from two to three years hence. And alongside the forecastswill be a “narrative” that gives more detail on the differences on the FederalOpen Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's rate-settingbody.
Lengthening theforecasts from two to three years is more important than it sounds. Three-yearforecasts should be untainted by transitory factors that blow theeconomy off course. As a result, they will say a lot about how quicklypolicymakers think the economy can grow and how low they believe the joblessrate can safely go. And since forecasts are conditional on an “appropriate”setting for monetary policy, the longer-term projections will reveal theinflation rate the FOMC is aiming for. If viewsdiverge, then Fed-watchers will have not one but several inflation “targets” tofocus on.
Ever the diplomat,Mr Bernanke said that the new communications set-up is a “work in progress” andstressed it would not affect policy decisions. Yet his speech gives a clearsense of the kind of central bank he wants to run. The emphasis on providing adeeper insight into the spread of views on the FOMCsignals a different approach from that of his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. MrBernanke said allowing diverse views reduces the risk that one voice becomes “undulydominant”.
Another theme is a more prominent role forexplicit benchmarks. Mr Bernanke acknowledged that his preference for aninflation target is not compatible with the Fed's “dual mandate”, which putsthe goal of maximum employment on an equal footing with price stability. But hehas nevertheless managed to find a way to get the Fed to be much clearer aboutits objectives. He acknowledged that one benefit of extending the Fed'sforecasts for an extra year is that it will provide “an evaluation of certainlong-run features of the economy.” And by agreeing to publish forecasts forheadline inflation, as well as the less volatile core data, Mr Bernanke has alsoaddressed the growing perception that the Fed thinks fast-rising food andenergy costs are not its problem
Thisis an opportune time to make the Fed's policymaking more open. As Mr Bernankemade clear, greater transparency will bolster the Fed's legitimacy and helppreserve its independence. Since recent readings on inflation and activity aresending conflicting signals, the Fed will need an understanding and informedpublic if it is to make the right choices.
1. The “inflation-targeters” (Line 4, Paragraph 2) refers to_____
[A] Fed-watchers.
[B] central banks.
[C] the rate-setting body.
[D] the public.
2. Which one of the following is not the change brought by the new strategy?
[A] Economic forecasts will be issued at a higher frequency.
[B] More details will be provided on economic outlook.
[C] The Fed’s functions begin to resemble those of the central banks of other countries.
[D] It if of significant importance to lengthen the forecasting years.
3. The word “untainted” (Line 2, Paragraph 3) most probably means_____
[A] affected.
[B] uninfluenced .
[C] unmarked.
[D] guided .
4. Compared with the approach of his predecessor, Mr Bernanke’s approach is more_____
[A] complex.
[B] democratic.
[C] reasonable.
[D] practical.
5. The second theme of Mr Bernanke’s speech is that______
[A] the goal of price stability is not supposed to be of the same importance as that of maximum employment.
[B] it is very important to set a clear standpoint.
[C] the Fed should establish new ways to find better objects.
[D] inflation target should be the main focus for the coming economic forcasts.
[答案]
1. B
2. C
3. B
4. B
5. B
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